Indulis Stikāns: Let's change transport and fuel consumption habits
If it is possible to fulfill the climate protection goals set by the European Union (EU), then as early as 2035, new cars with internal combustion engines will no longer be on the road. They will have been replaced by vehicles powered by "modern" energies – electricity, hydrogen, etc. It is planned that the "explosion" of car replacement will take place after 2030, when a large part of the cars in circulation will simply be physically obsolete. But you have to live until then.
Latvia has supported the common goals of the European Union in order to gradually move towards the goal of climate neutrality. Both business and every citizen will have to change their habits - both with regard to the use of transport and the fuels used in it, and with regard to production processes in companies and daily activities at the level of each individual. At Bioventa, we have started working on planning such changes, knowing that it will be a challenging work phase.
As is well known, the aim of the European "greening" plan, the so-called "Green Course", is to achieve a climate-neutral economy by 2050 by drastically reducing emissions. It's an ambitious goal, but the transport sector was given an additional "sharpness" by the improved "Fit for 55" plan presented by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in July. The most important thing for car and fuel manufacturers is that the EU plans to introduce a zero emission level for cars sold after 2035. Currently, light cars produced in the EU can emit 95 grams of carbon dioxide per kilometer driven, by 2030 emissions must be reduced by 55%, and from 2035 - to 0 grams. The currently permitted 147 grams of carbon dioxide emissions for vans must be halved by 2030 to reach zero in another five years. The situation is slightly different with heavy cars, for which the use of internal combustion engines must be reduced to 63% of the 2020 level by 2050, and carbon emissions to 81% of the 2020 level by 2030.
When it comes to engine technologies and, accordingly, different fuels, it is clear that most of the reduction in emissions until around 2030 will be achieved with those solutions that are currently already available on the market. Namely, not only electric cars will be important, but also efficient, low-emission internal combustion engines and hybrids. Thus, it will be very important what principles will be used to make fossil fuels (gasoline, diesel, autogas) more environmentally friendly. For example, how will these fuels be replenished with bio-additives.
How and in what terms, taking into account the common settings, to switch to the new types of engines and fuels, each EU member state must decide separately. Also for Latvia. And given the age and engine structure of cars in circulation, these are very challenging goals.
Of course, the number of electric cars and hybrids sold in our new car market is increasing, but for various reasons, people still mostly prefer vehicles powered by conventional fossil fuels - gasoline and diesel. The facts are inexorable – the average age of the Latvian car fleet (passenger cars) has been hovering around 13-14 years in recent years, but in the truck sector, it is 11-22 years for different categories. It can be easily predicted that the old vehicles will not disappear from the roads in one day, and also that the majority of the population of Latvia will hardly suddenly be able to afford to buy brand new, modern cars.
In addition, in the category of heavy cars and buses, diesel fuel is an undeniable leader not only in Latvia, but also throughout Europe, and forecasts show that the situation will change gradually at least in the next ten years. Diesel manufacturers are investing considerable resources to make this fuel more environmentally friendly, improve its performance and meet the soon-to-be "Euro 7" requirements.
What does it all mean? The fact that we - symbolically speaking - have to travel on both tracks. On the one hand, future technologies and ultra-modern fuels must be introduced, on the other hand, the usual internal combustion engines with conventional fuels will remain on the fuel market for a long time. (For example, the so-called "first generation" biodiesel.) In addition, it should be taken into account that the technical parameters of many car engines simply do not allow the use of more modern fuel.
In order to reduce the level of emissions and achieve the goals of using renewable energy resources (RES) in the transport sector, Latvia intends to make a very aggressive transition to the so-called second-generation or modern biofuels and by 2030 to rapidly reduce the use of first-generation biofuels (produced from food crop plants), which is a very risky goal that may not be achieved, and Latvia may face fines from the European Commission. Namely, the self-imposed goal - to reach the share of RES (biofuels) in the volume of at least 7% - is planned to be provided only with second generation biofuels. In addition, the minimum admixture of bio-additives could be only 3.5%. Basically, this means that the planned plan will mean an increase in the proportion of fossil fuel consumption, which is against the European "Green Deal" and the ever-expanding use of RES. I am sure that the most rational solution has not been chosen due to the above considerations.
We can take an example from Lithuania, which plans to stipulate that by 2030, 50% of the biodiesel used must be first-generation biodiesel. Even Germany, which has set a goal of achieving a higher proportion of RES use (23%) in transport, plans to leave 5.3% for first-generation biofuels by 2030.
"BioVenta" has been producing biodiesel from rapeseed for 13 years. This is the so-called "first-generation" (from vegetable oils) biofuels, which for several reasons are considered old-fashioned and only partially sustainable. Compared to fossil fuels, it provides 66% less carbon dioxide emissions. This is an important conclusion - so this product can help us reduce emissions and fulfill its function in Latvia's path to climate neutrality. The real state of Latvia's car fleet shows that in the period up to 2030 and beyond, all fossil fuel bio-additives will play an important role in reducing harmful emissions.
In addition, this emission reduction rate can be improved if agriculture is developed and biomethanol is used. Thus, by adapting the production process and technology, we would become more sustainable and increase emission reductions, at least for the period up to 2030. At the same time, we need to start working on more complex solutions in order to move to the production of truly sustainable products in the medium-to-long term. This will require time and investment, as well as collaboration with researchers and engineers. We are counting on this, already planning serious investments in the research and development of technologically advanced, more sustainable products.
That is why, in our opinion, the current regulation, which provides for a mandatory 7% addition of bio-additives to fossil fuel, should be left in place until 2030, without giving preference to biofuel of a specific origin/generation. Such a solution will in no way harm the goals set in Latvia's climate neutrality strategy to abandon the use of specially grown energy crops by 2050, but will be much friendlier to the citizens and entrepreneurs of our country.
The article is published at www.delfi.lv.